Article

Received 01.11.2025

Revised 21.02.2026

Accepted 26.03.2026

Published 05.04.2026

Retrieved from Vol. 30, No. 1, 2026

Pages 109 -119

Prokudin, G., Poliak, P., Melnykov, I., & Tsukanov, O. (2026). The role of freight forwarding activities in the recovery of Ukraine’s economy. The National Transport University Bulletin, 30(1), 109-119. https://doi.org/10.33744/2308-6645-2026-1-30-109-119

The role of freight forwarding activities in the recovery of Ukraine’s economy

Georgii Prokudin Petro Poliak Ihor Melnykov Oleksandr Tsukanov

The article provided a comprehensive analysis of the role of freight forwarding activities in supporting Ukraine’s economic recovery under the conditions of a full-scale war. The primary objective of the study was to analyse the dynamics of Ukraine’s trade balance and to develop a forecast for its development in 2025-2026. To achieve this objective, economic and mathematical modelling methods were applied, in particular various types of trend approximation, including exponential, linear, logarithmic, polynomial, and power models. This methodological approach allowed for comparing different functional dependencies and selecting the most suitable models under conditions of high uncertainty. The findings demonstrated a stable negative trade balance (USD -33,390.9 million in 2025 and USD -37,679.1 million in 2026), characterised by a decline in exports and a simultaneous increase in imports. This imbalance is largely driven by the growing need for energy resources, machinery, equipment, and other essential goods required to sustain the economy during wartime and recovery. Given the risks associated with a persistent trade deficit, the article proposed a set of strategic measures aimed at stabilising the economic situation. These included the restoration and modernisation of transport infrastructure, diversification of export markets, promotion of high value-added production, expansion of multimodal transport systems, and the implementation of digital technologies in logistics. Additionally, the study highlighted the strategic importance of Ukraine’s integration into the Trans-European Transport Network and the need to attract investment in logistics infrastructure and hubs. Overall, the research confirmed the crucial role of efficient logistics and transport systems in ensuring economic resilience and strengthening Ukraine’s position in international markets. The results of the study can be used in the development of national logistics strategies, policy-making, and support programmes for exporters

foreign trade; logistics; transport infrastructure; TEN-T; export; import; trade balance; forecasting
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https://doi.org/10.33744/2308-6645-2026-1-30-109-119