The National Transport University Bulletin

Abstract

The article describes the method of substantiating the choice of rolling stock for urban wheeled passenger transport based on the minimization of the rolling stock operating cost, taking into account the risk of energy shortages. The object of research is the process of transporting passengers by urban wheeled transport. The aim of the work is to develop a methodology of rolling stock choosing for urban passenger transport under modern conditions in Ukraine based on the cost of operation and taking into account risks to ensure the reliability of the transport process. Processes mathematical modelling is a research method. The conditions for expediency of replacing trolleybuses with buses on routes with regular passenger transportation in cities are considered. It is determined that the choice should be made for a specific time and place. At present, with the ratio of prices for rolling stock and energy carriers adopted in the calculations the use of battery-powered trolleybuses is the most profitable on routes with partial autonomous running. This is followed by gas buses and electric buses. As the share of the route without a contact network increases, the operating costs for trolleybuses from batteries and diesel generators grow. At the same time, such costs for buses do not depend on the share of the route without contact network because they do not need it. In the absence of energy lack, a diesel bus is less competitive due to diesel fuel high cost. An important issue is the reliability of various energy carriers supply (electricity, diesel fuel or gas), which is difficult to predict. Risks should be taken into account that can be assessed by the probability of certain type of energy carrier disappearance or a significant change in its cost. It is shown that risks can be assessed by the potential losses of the enterprise and society, which are calculated as the product of the energy carrier absence probability by the potential income of the enterprise or society in the absence of risk and potential losses. In the absence of electricity, a way to reduce the risk of disruption to the transport process may be to replace trolleybuses with buses on the corresponding routes, which leads to higher transportation costs. But at the same time, the reliability of the transport process increases and potential losses decrease. A certain value of the limiting value of the probability of electricity lack, depending on the specific cost of transportation by various modes of transport, above which the replacement of rolling stock with a more expensive and reliable one is advisable. The results can be used by city authorities for the operational management of passenger transportation process and planning of this activity

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