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Received 12.03.2022

Revised 13.07.2022

Accepted 22.08.2022

Retrieved from Vol. 26, No. 3, 2022

Pages 218 -230

  • 139 Views

Suggested citation

Lanovyi, O., Kiselyov, V., & Kosharnyi, O. (2022). Methodological fundamentals of synthesis of models for forecasting rational functioning and development of road network. The National Transport University Bulletin, 26(3), 218-230. https://doi.org/10.33744/2308-6645-2022-3-53-218-230

Methodological fundamentals of synthesis of models for forecasting rational functioning and development of road network

Oleksandr Lanovyi Volodymyr Kiselyov Oleksandr Kosharnyi

Abstract

The road network is one of the subsystems of the transport system of Ukraine. It should satisfy the needs of the population and the economy in passenger and cargo transportation. The object of the study is to increase the efficiency of the functioning of the network of public highways of Ukraine by ensuring the conditions for the continuous, safe and convenient movement of traffic flows. The research method is the theory of complex systems; morphological, functional and informational description of the functioning of the road network as a subsystem of a complex transport system; mathematical modeling; simulation modeling, as well as theories of: traffic flows, road transport, information, management, transport and operational properties of roads. The purpose of the work is to study the influence of the functioning of the highway network on the economic system of society, to determine the direction of macro-level efficiency of the functioning of the highway network, to synthesize models for forecasting the rational functioning and development of the highway network, as well as to forecast the work of the road industry. The effectiveness of the functioning of the network of public highways as a component of the economic system of society is determined on the following basis. The assessment of the effectiveness of the functioning of the public highway network as a component of the economic system of society provides the opportunity for the state to regulate the processes of the necessary level of resource provision for road works and the formation of transport demand for the use of highways. These services are socially necessary and are provided under the conditions of a limited (regulated) monopoly. The determination of the efficiency of the macro-level functioning of the road network is modeled from the perspective of society, when perceptions are based on the societal point of view (on the macro-level of functioning), in contrast to the definition that was practiced until now, when these perceptions were based on the individual perspective (on the micro-level of functioning). The completed synthesis of models for predicting the work of the road industry allows to confirm the hypothesis about the methodological conformity of the models of the functioning of the road network both at the micro-level and at the macro-level of functioning, which makes it possible to build a management system that meets the requirements of the time; The determination of the efficiency of the macro-level functioning of the road network is modeled from the perspective of society, when perceptions are based on the societal point of view (on the macro-level of functioning), in contrast to the definition that was practiced until now, when these perceptions were based on the individual perspective (on the micro-level of functioning). The completed synthesis of models for predicting the work of the road industry allows to confirm the hypothesis about the methodological conformity of the models of the functioning of the road network both at the micro-level and at the macro-level of functioning, which makes it possible to build a management system that meets the requirements of the time;

 

Keywords:

network of public roads; transport system of Ukraine; macro-level functioning of the country's economic system; synthesis of forecasting models

References

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https://doi.org/10.33744/2308-6645-2022-3-53-218-230

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