Article

Received 07.06.2022

Revised 17.10.2022

Accepted 28.11.2022

Retrieved from Vol. 26, No. 4, 2022

Pages 26 -35

Gavrylenko, О., Novakivska, К., & Shumeiko, O. (2022). Selection of the most influential economic factors for forecasting the us dollar exchange rate. The National Transport University Bulletin, 26(4), 26-35. https://doi.org/10.33744/2308-6645-2022-4-54-026-035

Selection of the most influential economic factors for forecasting the us dollar exchange rate

О. Gavrylenko К. Novakivska Oleksii Shumeiko

Since February 2014, a decision was made to switch to the market model of exchange rate formation. Such a decision helped to strengthen control over banks and significantly reduce the level of speculation in exchange rates. Together with the innovations, there was a need to determine the exchange rate for the future period for the correct formation of the budget, the conclusion of contracts in foreign currency and the conduct of currency transactions with the Treasury of Ukraine. Forecasting the rate of the NBU is a very important topic for the economic state of Ukraine. This article investigates the main macroeconomic indicators of the impact on the US dollar exchange rate in Ukraine: purchase/sale of cash currency, purchase/sale of non-cash currency, balance of purchase/sale of cash and non-cash currency, inflation of the current year, nominal and real GDP, purchase/sale by customers of banks, transactions between banks, gross and net international reserves, unemployment rate, accounting (interest) rate, balance of currency interventions, volume of nominal value transactions. Using the method of main components, the main economic components of the formation of the exchange rate are determined. With the help of ARIMA, Exponential Smoothing and SSA statistical models, the values of the selected influencing factors were predicted. The values of currency rates were predicted using regression models built by Fast Tree, Fast Forest, Fast Tree Tweedie and Gam algorithms, and the obtained values were studied for accuracy.

 

exchange rate; economic factors of influence; method of principal components; forecasting; regression; ARIMA; Exponential Smoothing; SSA; Fast Tree; Fast Tree Tweedie; Fast Forest; Gam
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https://doi.org/10.33744/2308-6645-2022-4-54-026-035